NRL Best Bets Round 18

BEST BET

St George Illawarra +18.5

Line

Cronulla go in close to the biggest favourite of 2023 when they host St George Illawarra, favoured by 18.5 points in early betting.

The Sharks are entitled to win and win well given the current state of St George Illawarra. The Saints showed little desire against the Warriors last week in an embarrassing showing. The Ben Hunt fiasco looms large but it does appear as if he will play this week.

There is a notable angle here that plays into common sense with teams off scoring 40-plus against teams who conceded 40-plus cover at just 36%. This is an exercise in swerving recency bias.

Cronulla have put bad teams to bed this year so that is a worry but they have covered just three of 10 at Shark Park.

The Dragons have covered 22 of 37 as an underdog in NSW and 10 of 16 off a loss of 20-plus.

A little bit of faith is required here but the Dragons getting 18.5 points is a bet.

NEXT BEST

Melbourne -1.5

Line

We could get our first glimpse of what is increasingly starting to look like the Grand Final with the Storm hosting the Panthers at Marvel Stadium.

The Storm welcome back Tui Kamikamica and look as strong as they have been for a long time. The Panthers bring in their Origin five but Nathan Cleary remains on the sidelines.

These two have split the last 10 evenly but the Storm did win the last clash 16-0 and they have covered 16 of their last 24 meetings.

While there is not a case to be made against the Panthers, there is a strong case for the Storm here.

They are excellent off a convincing win with a 36-20 cover number off a win of at least seven. They are 11-4 ATS off conceding six or fewer and 8-3 ATS when favoured by less than a try.

With Melbourne at home – the first time they have played Penrith in Melbourne since 2018 – and Cleary out, the Storm present as a clear play.