NRL Grand Final: 5 Best Bets

Best Bet: Penrith -3.5 ($1.90)

The strongest guide for premiership success over the last two decades has been defence. Penrith are panels ahead of Brisbane on that front. Not only are the Panthers a 4.71 ppg better defensive team than Brisbane, they have conceded just 10 tries in their last eight finals games. In their last five Grand Final halves, Penrith have allowed just five tries and that includes the two garbage time tries scored late last year with the premiership secured.

The numbers for Penrith are truly astonishing and really reinforce the notion that this is one of the greatest teams to ever play in the premiership. The Panthers not only get it done – they get it done when they should.

Penrith have covered 16 of 23 when playing a team located in the Top 3. They are also 12-7 ATS at home off a win of 20-plus and they are 16-8 ATS at home off conceding 12 or fewer and there is no doubt they can be viewed as the home team in this one. The Panthers have covered 61% of games in Sydney over the last four seasons while they are a ridiculous 14-3 ATS under Adam Gee over that timeframe.

Brisbane’s numbers are a little more mixed. They have covered six of seven interstate and six of seven at night but they are 13-17 ATS v Top 4 teams and have covered just 6 of 16 under Adam Gee.

These two have played some incredibly low scoring games of late and Penrith’s default setting in finals is defence. It is hard to see Brisbane’s attack, as good as it is, being able to open up against the Panthers. The Panthers will suffocate the life out of them. With a small minus, Penrith are a hugely confident bet to win this.

Next Best: Nathan Cleary Churchill Medal ($3.75)

Essentially what we are looking for is a rep player from the winning team, preferably playing in the halves or at fullback and definitely not playing in the three-quarter line. That leaves us with the obvious selection of Nathan Cleary as the best bet. Cleary is a star and is the only Panther to tick all the boxes aside from Jahrome Luai. He is short but after not winning it last year he looks a clear standout to win it this year, particularly in his current form.

Best Tryscorer: Brian To’o ($2.05)

Brian To’o has failed to score in just two of his last 14 games and has 16 tries in his last 11 matches, including a hat-trick last week against Melbourne. He has scored in two of three Grand Finals. There is value on him scoring last too with To’o crossing six times for last try this season.