NRL Best Bets: Preliminary Finals

Best Bet: Penrith -13.5

While Melbourne once owned Penrith, the Panthers have been dominant against the Storm in recent times. They have won both meetings by 18-plus this year. They have won and covered four of the last five. They have scored 26 or more in three of their last four while the Storm have not topped 16 in five straight. This is just a tremendous spot for the Panthers too. Penrith are 15-9 against the spread when favoured by double digits. They have covered 15 of 22 when playing against Top 4 opposition. They have covered 11 of 18 at home off a win of 20-plus. Melbourne have covered just 5 of 13 as an interstate underdog and just 6 of 16 against Top 4 teams.

Next Best: New Zealand +10.5

These two have played it incredibly tight in recent history. The Broncos hold the slightest of edges, going 6-5-1 in the last 12 meetings with the Warriors. The Broncos won 26-22 in Napier this year, a game that made it seven straight underdog covers. The line does look a little large in this one. The Warriors have covered 8 of 13 in Australia and have proven themselves very good travellers. The Broncos have covered just seven of 19 at Suncorp and have a poor 12-17 cover record against Top 4 opposition.

Best Tryscorer: Liam Martin ($3.60)

Liam Martin has been in elite tryscoring form and can be bet with confidence to score against Melbourne. The hard-running Martin had scored in four straight games and has crossed in six of nine starts since Round 18 – where he crossed against the Storm. Martin is great value to get across.